"MuğanBank"ın reytinqi qaldırıldı, "Stabil" diaqnoz qoyuldu

21.06.2018 Bank
Beynəlxalq kredit reytinqi agentliyi "Standard & Poor's" (S&P), Azərbaycanın "MuğanBank" ASC-nin uzun və qısamüddətli kredit reytinqlərini "CCC+/C" səviyyəsindən "B-/B" səviyyəsinə qaldırıb. Proqnoz "Stabil"dir.

"Kommersant"ın məlumatına görə, Agentlik qeyd edib ki, ötən il "Muğanbank"ın likvidliyi möhkəmlənib və müştəri hesablarında dəyişkənlik azalıb:

"Bizim fikrimizcə, hazırda bankın kredit itkilərinə kifayət qədər davam gətirə biləcək buferləri var. Bank 2018-2019-da da əlavə kredit itkisini bağlamaq üçün buferə malidir. Bu səbəbdən də biz reytinqi "CCC+/C" səviyyəsindən "B-/B" səviyyəsinə arıtırırq. "Sabit" (Stabil) proqnoz bizim mövqeyimizi əks etdirir ki, bankın kredit portfeli bütövlükdə sabit qalacaq".

Agentlik qeyd edib ki, Azərbaycanın iqtisadiyyatı da yaxşılaşır.

Azerbaijan-Based Muganbank Upgraded To 'B-/B' On Improving Liquidity; Outlook Stable

-Muganbank's liquidity strengthened last year, and customer account volatility has reduced; therefore, in our view, the bank now has sufficient buffers to withstand deposit outflows should they reoccur.

-Although the bank still posts losses, it has a relatively large capital buffer to absorb additional credit losses in 2018-2019.

-We are therefore raising our ratings on Muganbank to 'B-/B' from 'CCC+/C'.

-The stable outlook reflects our view that the bank's credit profile will remain broadly stable, supported by sufficient liquidity to meet obligations when they fall due and by Azerbaijan's improving economy.

June 20, 2018--S&P Global Ratings today raised its long- and short-term issuer credit ratings on Azerbaijan-based Muganbank OJSC to 'B-/B' from 'CCC+/C'. The outlook is stable.

The upgrade follows the improvement in Muganbank's liquidity position over the past year, by attracting corporate funds on current and settlement accounts, and generating additional liquidity from the sale of and amortization on its retail loan portfolio. The bank's broad liquid assets (net of restricted cash) increased to Azerbaijan manat (AZN) 63 million (about $37 million) at year-end 2017, from AZN11 million a year ago, and now cover around 25% of total customer deposits. Consequently, almost all the bank's funding and liquidity
ratios have improved and now compare with those of regional peers that we consider to have adequate liquidity.

In addition, Muganbank's dependence on funding from the central bank has declined to 5.0% of total liabilities from 15% a year ago. We therefore think that the bank is better able to withstand potentially severe stress related to customer outflows than in 2017. We now regard the bank's liquidity as adequate rather than moderate, and this has become a neutral rating factor.

In our view, the bank's capitalization remains modest, as reflected in a risk-adjusted capital (RAC) ratio of 5.0% at year-end 2017. We expect that the bank's capitalization will deteriorate, with the RAC ratio declining to 3.5%-3.9% in the next 12-18 months. This is mainly because we expect that the bank will continue to generate net losses until year-end 2019, although much lower than over the past two years. We project that the bank's credit losses will stabilize at 2.3%-2.5%. However, we expect the net interest margin will continue declining, with a negative impact on revenues and profitability, due to the growing share of low-margin products, such as corporate and mortgage lending, and continuing competition from larger banks in Azerbaijan.

Nevertheless, we note the bank's capital buffer over the minimum regulatory ratio exceeded 300 basis points as of March 31, 2018, and we expect it will remain higher than 200 basis points over the next 18 months.

Muganbank's profitability is recovering less quickly than that of peers in Azerbaijan after the economic slowdown of 2015-2016, and we don't expect the bank will be able to generate capital internally to support growth. Moreover, we think the bank's customer base remains volatile and its customer franchise is relatively weak, which is one of the reasons for significant customer outflows in 2016. We therefore think the bank's business position has weakened overall over the past two years and this continues to weigh on the ratings.

In our view, Muganbank is no longer dependent on favorable business, financial, and economic conditions to meet its financial obligations, and we do not foresee a default scenario over the next 12-18 months. This reflects Muganbank's sufficient liquidity and capital buffer, expected decline in credit losses, and stabilizing economic conditions in Azerbaijan.

The stable outlook reflects our view that Muganbank's credit profile will remain relatively unchanged over the next 12-18 months, supported by its sufficient liquidity buffer, declining credit losses, and stabilizing economic
risks in Azerbaijan's banking sector.

We could lower ratings in the next 12 months if volatility of customer funds increases, weighing on Muganbank's liquidity position, or if the bank's asset quality continues to deteriorate, with rising NPAs and credit losses exceeding the system average. A negative rating action may also follow aggressive growth that is not supported by injections from the owner, thereby putting pressure on the bank's capital adequacy.

A positive rating action is unlikely during our rating horizon. Nevertheless, we could consider one if the bank demonstrated significant improvement in profitability, combined with a material decline of credit losses and problem assets.